enfo131 posted a 4000+ population reddit yet I think some of the popular models/conclusions might be wrong so I decide to write this paper.
The majority of this paper is based on theory and is yet to be testified.
The game is so time consuming that I don't even know if I'll be able to test my theory.
Trader mechanics
According to pollackey 2, 5 types of merchants visit randomly every 6 months if dismissed immediately. Otherwise traders stay at the dock for an additional 3 months, making the interval 9 months in total.
Towns with population greater than 150 have fully developed merchants.
firewood or ale?
Several limitations of the game:
- a finite number of trading posts
- finite land capacity, thus finite production rate
- ...
Generally one want to maximize the production rate while can still convert these production to useful / correct mixture of resources.
A typical citizen use the following resources per year, observed from a late game of no trading.
- 0.175 tool @12
- 5.65 fuel @4
- 100 food @1
- 0.35 clothes @25
in total, 133.45 production is required for each citizen.
A general goods merchant can carry $20 \times 200$ logs or $20 \times 2000$ food (400 people) on request.
A resource merchant can carry $5 \times 200$ logs (707 people), or $5 \times 100$ tools (2857 people), or $5 \times 50$ clothes (714 people) on request, or $5 \times 100$ wool (1428 people) roughly 1:4:1:2.
A food merchant can carry $15 \times 2000$ food on request.
One has several choices on deciding firewood or ale.
5000 firewood solution
All capacity of general goods merchant and resource mechant goes to logs. This create $5000/2.5 = 2000$ logs import, or an 8000 annual firewood export. Later we will find that, even at maximum capacity, the production of firewood is still quite low.
8000 export requires >10 wood cutters, and $5000 \times 11/2.5/2/250 = 44$ sq stockpile per trading post.
40000 food, 30000 ale resource, firewood, steel tools, and wool
All capacity of general goods merchant goes to beans (vegatable), wheat(grain), and chestnut(meat), amount for 40000 food per boat.
All capacity of food merchat goes to apple (for ale), amount for 30000 per boat.
This is a calculated move, as 30000 apple produces 10000 ale, or 80000 production, just more than the 70000 cost. Besides, one need something else to buy from the resource merchant, and may take the risk that citizens took apple as food (maybe produce more apple from orchard to cover this lost).
Capacity of the resource merchant... well it's complicated. For 7 posts, we want 4 on logs, 2 on wool, and 1 on tools, to provide just enough for 2800 people. If you buy clothes directly, this would not be enough.
In actual production, for each post, total anunal cost is
$(40000 + 30000 + (2000 \times 4+2500 \times 2+6000)/7)/2.5 = 29086$, or 3636 ale.
We need 11 tavens(!), 2 wood cutter, 2 tailor for each post, and storage space $(40000 + 30000 + (500 \times 10 \times 2+500 \times 10)/7)/2.5/2 = 14428$ roughly 2.5 storage barns, and $1000 \times 11/2.5/2/250=8.8$ sq stockpile.
Direct total labor cost is 11(brewers)+2(wood cutters)+2(tailors)+n(vendors)=15+n, and they can serve 160 people's daily need.
With a map of 75 trading posts, this could be 12000 people from trading only.
| structure | area | count | total area |
|---|---|---|---|
| trading post | 98 | 1 | 98 |
| stock pile | 42 | 1 | 42 |
| storage barn | 40 | 3 | 120 |
| wood cutter | 42 | 2 | 84 |
| taven | 42 | 10 | 420 |
| house | 20 | 50 | 1000 |
| market | 196 | 1 | 196 |
| herblist | 36 | 1 | 36 |
| cemetry | 127 | 1 | 127 |
| school | 40 | 1 | 40 |
An estimate of land usage of a trading station with 50 houses comes to 2163 sq (including cemetery!). Using python to count the actual available land from minimap shows about 50% of the map are flatlands. This gives 60 of such groups on a large map, with a population of about 10000 people. This is stable population, the actual spike can reach possibly 15000-20000, which won't last.
Misc and Tips
Seed 298 with 89 trading posts available, credit to enfo3.
Market is still required even though all the food is imported and has a considerable diversity, since herbs can only be distributed by markets.
Do not build hospitals near schools - common sense.
Use graveyard cancelling trick.